Manganese Ore Market Remains Consolidated with Further Upside Room Ahead [SMM Analysis]

Published: Jan 7, 2025 14:27

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【SMM Analysis: Manganese Ore Market Remains Consolidated, Upside Room Still Exists】 As of this Tuesday, at northern ports: Australian lump ore was 41.5–42 yuan/mtu (flat MoM); Australian fines were 38–38.5 yuan/mtu (flat MoM); South African semi-carbonate was 33.5–34 yuan/mtu (up 1.50% MoM); Gabonese ore was 38–38.5 yuan/mtu (up 1.32% MoM); South African high-iron ore was 28.5–29 yuan/mtu (flat MoM). At southern ports: Australian lump ore was 43.5–44 yuan/mtu (flat MoM); Australian fines were 39–39.5 yuan/mtu (flat MoM); South African semi-carbonate was 34–34.5 yuan/mtu (flat MoM); Gabonese ore was 40.5–41 yuan/mtu (up 1.24% MoM); South African high-iron ore was 29–29.5 yuan/mtu (flat MoM). Currently, miners' quotations remain firm, while downstream alloy plants are cautious in procurement, keeping the manganese ore spot market stable. Regarding the outlook for imported manganese ore prices, overall market sentiment is optimistic. Specifically, most industry participants are bullish on future manganese ore prices, primarily due to tight spot supply for some mainstream manganese ore varieties and active market inquiries. Miners show weak willingness to sell at low prices. Additionally, the destocking pace of manganese ore inventories at ports has accelerated, alloy plants have winter stockpiling demand, downstream demand support has strengthened, and miners' quotations remain firm. On the other hand, bearish views on manganese ore prices stem from the persistent supply surplus at northern ports, where alloy plants remain cautious in manganese ore procurement and show low acceptance of high-priced manganese ore. Furthermore, the operating rate of southern alloy plants remains at a low level, leading to weak manganese ore procurement demand.

SMM, January 7:

As of this Tuesday, at northern ports: Australian lump ore was priced at 41.5-42 yuan/mtu (flat WoW); Australian fines at 38-38.5 yuan/mtu (flat WoW); South African semi-carbonate at 33.5-34 yuan/mtu (up 1.50% WoW); Gabonese ore at 38-38.5 yuan/mtu (up 1.32% WoW); South African high-iron ore at 28.5-29 yuan/mtu (flat WoW). At southern ports: Australian lump ore was priced at 43.5-44 yuan/mtu (flat WoW); Australian fines at 39-39.5 yuan/mtu (flat WoW); South African semi-carbonate at 34-34.5 yuan/mtu (flat WoW); Gabonese ore at 40.5-41 yuan/mtu (up 1.24% WoW); South African high-iron ore at 29-29.5 yuan/mtu (flat WoW).

Currently, miners' quotations remain firm, while downstream alloy plants are cautious in their purchases, keeping the manganese ore spot market stable. Regarding the outlook for imported manganese ore prices, overall market sentiment is optimistic. Specifically, most industry participants are bullish on future manganese ore prices, mainly due to the tight spot supply of some mainstream manganese ore varieties, active market inquiries, and miners' reluctance to sell at low prices. Additionally, the destocking pace of manganese ore inventories at ports has accelerated, alloy plants have winter stockpiling demand, downstream demand support has strengthened, and miners' quotations remain firm.

On the other hand, some industry participants are bearish on manganese ore prices, primarily because the supply surplus of manganese ore at northern ports persists, northern alloy plants remain cautious in their manganese ore purchases, and their acceptance of high-priced manganese ore is low. Furthermore, the operating rate of southern alloy plants remains at a low level, leading to weak manganese ore purchasing demand.

A small number of industry participants believe that manganese ore prices will remain stable, mainly because the total inventory of manganese ore at ports is sufficient, and downstream alloy plants, due to production pressure, tend to bargain down purchasing prices and show weak willingness to purchase high-priced manganese ore. The tug-of-war between supply and demand for manganese ore suggests that prices are expected to remain stable in the future.

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